Finally, the New York Jets. On paper, this team appears awfully impressive. Their defense is led by head coach Rex Ryan, who continues to bring in veterans from across the league. This year, that includes the new acquisitions of Jason Taylor and Cromartie. They are solid across the board and appear firmly seated within the NFL's elite defenses.
Also gone from San Diego is cornerback Antonio Cromartie, leaving the Chargers secondary with the veteran Quentin Jammer to lead an inexperienced defensive backfield. The Bolts had a hard time stopping the run last year too, finishing 20th in the league against the rush,and hotheaded linebacker Shawn Merriman wants more money as well . A team once considered the most talented in the league seems a bit lopsided on offense these days, and the defense has some questions to answer.
In the West, San Diego continues to enjoy a cream-puff division. The Chargers football jerseys shouldn't be challenged much by its rivals—I expect Denver to be worse—but they too are not without concerns. Drafting Ryan Mathews with their first pick demonstrates their worry about employing an every-down back. After letting LaDainian Tomlinson go to the Jets and franchise-tagging Darren Sproles, the Chargers were left without a running back with the size to "carry the load". Mathews has the right ingredients, but every rookie must prove themselves before expectations can fairly be applied to them.
Now as for the Dolphins, the biggest reason I think they will win this season is because Bill Parcells is in the third year with the franchise. Like Belichick, and Newsome, Parcells has an unprecedented track record that includes Super Bowl championships and turning around struggling franchises. The calling card of a Parcells team is that they are usually oversized. The Dolphins roster is one of the beefiest in the league that will help the grind inside a tough division. Ronnie Brown gets hurt a lot, but Ricky Williams still appears to have plenty in the tank and one, or both, will power run over much of their schedule this year. Their quarterback, Chad Henne, doesn't blow many away with his play, but he too is a big guy with a strong arm who looked better as the season went on last year. Their defense lacks star-power but is a deep and physical unit that reminds me very much of the Bengals defense, only in 3-4 form.
But it's the defense that worries me most with the new Patriots jerseys. As more and more veterans leave this unit, the consistency becomes an issue, and their secondary—especially the corners—seem suspect. Bill Belichick is a sour-faced wizard who sees NFL games like Neo sees the Matrix and will probably prove me wrong once again. For now, I say the Patriots can be thrown on with a limited pass rush and suspect corners giving them roughly eight wins this season.
As for Mr. Brady, well, he's still great. To me, all the Joe Montana comparisons are true enough. His favorite target, Randy Moss, is also still great. In the last three seasons, Moss has recorded 3,500 yards and 47 touchdowns. Their offensive line isn't what it once was and the next generation of Patriots linemen haven't proven to gel with the dinosaurs of the past. Then there are questions about a backfield with several injury problems last year. Baltimore feasted on Brady early in last year's wild card game because they were not concerned with a Patriots rushing attack.
Since the Patriots rent an apartment in the AFC Playoff picture, they are there every year. One season, Tom Brady went down, and they let Miami crash instead (they still almost ended up there anyway with Matt Cassell), but have been there every other year for what seems forever. Sadly for the Patriots, however, I think they should start hunting for a new apartment because they won't be there come this January.
The surprise this year will be the Miami Dolphins jerseyswinning the East. In order to make that statement, however, I must explain the demise of the New England Patriots.
The Jets also added to their offense by bringing in Tomlinson and Santonio Holmes. They employ a rugged offensive line, an up-and-coming running back in Shawn Greene with whom I consider the best offensive coordinator in the league, Brian Schottenheimer. Quarterback Mark Sanchez started off well last year, hit a mid-season rut but bounced back nicely late in the year and in the playoffs. While I don't expect Sanchez to end up in the Pro Bowl this season, I do think he will continue to improve into a nice game manager for the Jets.
So with all this praise showered upon New York, why don't I have them ending up farther in the playoffs? First, there's some dissent in the Jets camp regarding contract squabbles. Center Nick Mangold wants more money, Darrelle Revis wants more money, David Harris wants more money. The team recently inked D'Brickashaw Ferguson to a $60 million contract extension. While the Jets cant pay all of these guys in the same year, this will mean someone will have to play this year at what they likely consider a discount rate, and some feelings will be hurt.
But aside from hurt feelings, I think the Jets are too limited in their passing game. Castaways like Holmes and Braylon Edwards don't scare me much—Jericho Cotchery is their best receiver. Tight end Dustin Keller killed the Bengals last season, but early in the year he was considered something of a disappointment. Greene has yet to prove he can carry the load for a whole season, and LT is wearing down fast. Schottenheimer calls a great game, but he can't make the throws and catch passes himself. I see this offense struggling at the wrong times to make a deep push into the playoffs.
So there you have it. The AFC will once more be ruled by Indianapolis, followed by Cincinnati, Baltimore, Miami, San Diego and the New York Jets jerseys. Obviously all of this analysis is based off of names on paper and something will not transpire as predicted, but it's nice to get a rough outline of what to expect this season. We're only six weeks away from the real deal; time to lose our composure and freak out with excitement!
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